Guys sitting and watching each update of the long term models with a serious mindset is pointless. Its ENSO neutral, anything beyond 192..... even general things such as pressure distribution are highly variable in this unpredictable season. Unless the indicators are to the extreme and remain so for several updates (such as the indications of extremely high pressure over western europe from the models starting December 26-27, which was putting values of 1040 plus over western europe and geopotential was almost to a seasonal maximum) we should not give too much though to these flounders..... especially by the immature and concrete GFS
Real forecasters focus on the period ahead, no matter what type of weather (stability or not) and only glance at the long term for a general outlook.
![نقره لعرض الصورة في صفحة مستقلة](images/smilies/jow7.gif)