The evening updates are better on some aspects and worse on others. To sum up the situation low pressure will effect the kingdom and Palestine and Lebanon from Sunday 1/6 until Friday 1/11 through a long series of Cold fronts and separate storms.
To start off, a Front producing weak amounts of rain for Jordan and Palestine and stronger, more prolific rains for lebanon and syria should approach on Sunday 1/6. Sunday night through Monday morning will be the introduction of a new and more powerful Front as the LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM deepns to about 1002-1004 Mb over and just north of Cyprus. After the Passing of the front, the majority of the Rain and possible snow will be observed. Amounts will range between 60 and 100 mm and i will post a more comprehensive overview of amounts later on this week as we get closer to the event.
Monday night should bring chilly 850 hpa temperatures of about 1-2 celcius and will be accompanied by moderate to heavy rain. This night is the night where the chance of snow will increase at altitudes between 1150 and 1200. These elevations should see snow falling sometime monday night and into sunday morning. As sunday morning approaches, there are several different possibilities regard the 850 hpa temperature, but my personal opinion is sometime Sunday morning or afternoon these values could drop to o celcius or just below, enabling Snow to fall on elevations exceeding 1000 meters. Accumulation should be weak and limited as preciptiation on Tuesday will be sporadic and "stop and Go" type.
What i think we need to watch is the progression of a new depression on 9/1 through 11/1. The GFS currently paints a beautiful picture and shows a strong chance for snow above 900 meters on THursday and Friday, but the European disagrees and paints the picture of a weaker depression and if any snow were to fall it would be limited to elevations above 1000. My personal opinion is the following: :
The storm approaching, although of very different circumstances, will resemble the storm of 17/2/2012 in the sense of 850 hpa temperature, it may be slightly warmer. The difference is the upcoming storm will be much more powerful when it comes to precipitation as 60+ mm may fall on areas of Jordan and Palestine.
My friends ofcourse nothing is ixed and we must remember that this is an ENSO neutral season so the models may flounder and not be fixed as compared to last year and years before, so patience is required and i ask of everyone to remain optimistic but realistic at the same time.
رد: ::: مناقشة الأحوال الجوية الحاليه والمتوقعه للثلث الأول من يناير لعام 2013 :::
العرض العادي
