The most important thing to look at when we are dealing with a situation that is over 168 hours away is the GEFS ensemble
For those who dont know, the GEFS works by changing the initial conditions just slightly for every indivual model, which gives a realistic picture of what might happen
The average of these shows the collective opnion on what will happen, and the average should be trusted over all other models.
Since the average is showing temperatures dropping below 0 at 850 hPA 6/1-9/1 there indeed is a high chance snow will fall on elevations above 1000 meters.
Snow will FALL
But accumulate? A big storm? At what elevations? For how long? We have no idea....
Its obvious it will be cold, but how strong high pressure is over western europe BEFORE the decent of cold air will decide what kind of storm we have
It could be something like 28/2/2012--2/3/2012
Thats the most likely
But if things get better it might be more similar to 8/1/2013
It will definitely NOT be as strong as 13/12/2013
Not enough high pressure over Europe
Stay tuned
رد: مناقشة الاحوال الجوية خلال الثلث الثالث والأخير من كانون أول / 2014
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