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اقتباس: المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة hakamshara
The situation tomorrow night may not seem suitable for snow... but let us step back and assess the layers of the atmosphere.... first of all, the warm air being pushed in exists at 850 hpa... warm air is not being drawn at the ground level as we can clearly see 925 hPa stay around 1 c..... keeping in mind the power of the front and moisture that will move in... and given the thunder and rapid fall of precipitation.... i believe we are in for a special type of "wintry mix" rarely ever seen in Jordan or Palestine... only usually witness in the US when a warm body of air moves OVER a cold body of air
You see, by saturday morning, it is not realistic to expect all this cold air that is here right now to just disappear with this small little front moving in off the sea, sure it will mix with it and warm it up, but i believe due to snow cover, the 500z altitude, and the 925 hPa temperatures, we will witness a start of snow above 800 meters (it will be in the form of ice pellets known as sleet) which will transition to very heavy snow... which will transition to a form of precipitation known as freezing rain... witnessed when the 850 hpa temperatures melt the falling snow into rain, and the temperatures just above the ground are still around 0... freezing the "fake rain" as it hits the ground.. so we will see it as rain, but a sheet of ice will form
Now i am not sure at what elevations this will occur, because, confusingly, the higher you go, the closer to the warm 850 hPa air you get, and the more likely to experience plain rain
So, if what i am saying does occur tomorrow, elevations above 1100 will actually have LESS of a chance for frozen precipitation than of say 800-1000
Another scenario would be similar to January 22,2008 where no 850 hpa coolness was brought in from the ocean, but already cold temperatures ON THE GROUND were pulled up during convection and allowed dumping of snow on elevations above 1000 meters... this is more likely for tomorrow, and Ajloun and west Amman could see a very fast 15-20 cm of wet slushy snow... before changing to rain
Either way, if you live above 850 or 900 meters, expect some kind of wintry precipitation other than rain tomorrow night
Huda has been a very odd and interesting storm... one that has shown us these models are becoming weaker by the year.... stay tuned
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.Freezing rain would be the worst form of precipitation. It usually causes the most damage to the trees, power lines and of course makes travel very difficult, if not impossible
رد: متابعة الاحوال الجوية قبيل و اثناء العاصفة الشتوية "هدى"
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