Although many scientists introduced (and still searching) their researches about specified long-range forecasting parameters, ambiguity hasn't been displaced in front of their fail to reach a useful results
In the modern mathematical prediction models have been enhanced by adding the global climatic change effects in the long-range prediction as an example, the European Center for Medium-long range Weather
Forecast (ECMWF), and the British met-office ( UKMET) are leading in this research field in order to improve the long-range forecast
As the UKMET provides long-range forecast (also for a season) ,it gives
an average behavior for several months, so those months usually encounter some climatic periods above or below the average and may
be extreme!
...?So what's the solution
The traditional tools have been used as clinging with "husk" in order to obtain some analogue or periodic behavior of the climate. For several weather cases, those methods didn't serve forecasting some seasons, as the reason is the complicated climatic elements
New mathematical conclusions were discovered in Sep 2008, it based on a story mentioned in the Holy Qur'an. Simply, it can forecast the strength of the desired year using El-Nino 3.4 area anomalies values by simple mathematical method
This method needs more time to get more values that help to build the method's truth (to become theory). But it can be used initially by the next season 2008/2009 using numbers known as Relative Index. The Relative Index describes the strength of the forecasted year using the forecasted DJF mean El-Nino3.4 area anomaly (as these months reflect the season's characteristics
I hope this helps us to improve our forecast skills.
Best regards for all
Moh'd Ribhy
العرض الشجري